Talking points on Iran

How dangerous is Iran?

The mullahs are dedicated to power and wealth, just like rulers everywhere.  They sound crazy, but they are not.  They know that if they used a nuclear weapon against Israel or America, they would be annihilated.  They are not suicidal.

Published evidence of a nuclear weapons program has turned out to be bogus.  We know that Iran has a nuclear energy program, but we do not know whether they have a nuclear weapons program.

Possession of nuclear weapons does not automatically mean use of nuclear weapons.  Nine nations have nuclear weapons, but only one has ever used them, and that was in a situation where there was no danger of retaliation.  Possession of nuclear weapons by many nations means use of them by somebody some day is inevitable.  Rather than trust some with them and not trust others, we should be working hard for global nuclear disarmament.

The value of nuclear weapons is political, not military.  To use them would be suicidal, but to possess them conveys power and prestige in international relations.  Sending mixed signals about weapons programs enables a government to acquire some of that power and prestige without the expense of the actual development.

Iran hasn't attacked a neighbor in 275 years.

Are sanctions a good idea?

South Africa is the only significant example of successful sanctions.

Fifty years of sanctions have only strengthened the Castro regime in Cuba.

Sanctions against Iraq killed hundreds of thousands of children without dislodging the Saddam Hussein regime.

Sanctions are only effective if there is cooperation by all major trading partners, and China is not about to cooperate.

Iran already has plans in place to circumvent anticipated sanctions.

The Iranian government has been wanting to raise petroleum prices, but has been afraid of popular reaction if they did.  Sanctions would give them the opportunity to do it and blame it on America.

Any kind of aggression, including sanctions, would strengthen the position of the incumbent government and give them a pretext to crack down on dissidents.

Sanctions bills currently in Congress cannot succeed, because they demand conditions with which no Iranian government could comply.  They can only lead to hightened tensions and entrenchment of the current Iranian government.

Who can we believe?

Not the media.  "Everybody knew" that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, and the New York Times published evidence to prove it, but the evidence turned out to be bogus.  Now the Times of London has presented evidence of Iran's nuclear weapons program, but that report has turned out to be bogus.

Not the US government.  Colin Powell presented evidence to prove that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, but Iraq did not.  Lyndon Johnson cited the Tonkin Gulf incident to justify war in Viet Nam; it turned out to be bogus. 

Not the Iranian government.  You don't believe them when they deny having a weapons program, so why should you believe them when they state or hint that they do have one?  Mixed signals are in their interest, because they gain some of the power and prestige of having nuclear weapons, whether they actually have them or not.

The IAEA.  The IAEA monitored and inspected Iraq extensively and found no evidence of nuclear weapons.  They were right, and if we had believed them, we could have saved ourselves from a trillion dollar war.  The IAEA has reported a lack of absolute transparency from Iran, but has not reported evidence of nuclear weapons development.  The IAEA continues to monitor Iran, and if they find evidence of a nuclear weapons program, they will make it public.

Rick Steves.  See Rick's film of his visit to Iran.  He found Iranian people to be warm and open, anxious to have a better relationship with American people.

What should we do?

Lower tensions.  Lower the rhetoric.  Encourage travel, exchange, trade, and contact.

Push for achievable goals - compliance with the IAEA and end to support of terrorist groups.

Push for balanced goals.  The Middle East should be a nuclear-free zone.  End CIA meddling in Iran as well as Iranian support for Hezbollah.

Improve our own credibility by a more balanced approach to Israel and Palestine.

Negotiate with emphasis on common interests, such as stability in Iran's neighbors, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Let NGOs such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch apply pressure regarding human rights abuses.  A more democratic government would not agree with us on everything, but would be more interested in negotiation.  Explicit pressure from the American government on human rights is counterproductive.

Ratify the Nuclear Test Ban treaty.